Democrats Winning Big in Special Elections Could Signal Success in 2024 Election
Democrats Score Big Win in New Hampshire Special Election, Could Signal Success in 2024
In a surprising turn of events, Democrat Hal Rafter emerged victorious in a special election in New Hampshire, defeating Republican James Guzofski by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent. This win has significant implications as it marks the end of full Republican control of the New Hampshire state government.
With the upcoming November special election in a solidly blue seat, Democrats have the opportunity to tie the state House at 198 Republicans and 198 Democrats, with two independents and two vacant seats. While control of the House may fluctuate depending on legislator absences, this outcome is a major milestone for Democrats.
This victory is part of a larger trend of Democrats outperforming in special elections, which could be a positive sign for the party heading into the 2024 election. Despite the New Hampshire district leaning Republican, Rafter’s win by 12 points represents an 18-point overperformance for Democrats.
The consistency of Democratic overperformance in special elections throughout the year suggests a potential wave election in 2024. Historically, the average overperformance in special elections has closely mirrored the House popular vote in the subsequent general election, favoring Democrats by a few points.
While early polling data shows a slight advantage for Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, the discrepancy between the polls and special election results raises questions about the accuracy of these predictions. The unique dynamics of special elections, including a more college-educated electorate, may explain the Democratic overperformance.
As Democrats cautiously anticipate the 2024 election based on their recent successes in special elections, the uncertainty of how these results will translate to a national scale remains. With the political landscape constantly evolving, only time will tell if Democrats can maintain their momentum and secure a victory in the upcoming election.
