Democrats Defy Polls in Special Elections, Fueled by Abortion Rights

The Democratic Party has been defying expectations and delivering strong results in special elections, despite public opinion polls showing President Biden’s unpopularity. In a study conducted by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s 2020 election results in 21 out of 27 state legislative races this year, with an average margin of seven percentage points.

These results come in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which has galvanized Democratic voters and motivated moderate Republicans to support Democratic candidates. Abortion rights have become a key issue in these elections, with Democrats leveraging it to power races down the ballot.

Historically, special elections have served as indicators of broader political trends, as seen in the victories of Scott Brown and Conor Lamb in past special elections. Despite Biden’s low approval ratings, Democratic leaders remain optimistic about their chances in upcoming elections, pointing to past presidents who have rebounded from similar situations.

While some political operatives remain skeptical of the predictive power of special elections, Democrats are celebrating their recent wins as a sign of their strength and message resonating with voters. The upcoming elections in Virginia will be a crucial test for both parties, with Democrats warning of a rollback of abortion rights under Republican control, while Republicans focus on tax cuts and parental influence over schools.

Overall, Democrats are confident in their prospects heading into the 2024 elections, citing competitive maps and strong performances in special elections as evidence of their momentum. The results of these down-ballot races will likely shape the political landscape in the coming years.